World's End: Nigh or Never?

By Tess Bridges
Risk Management Division, University of London, UK.

Since the dawn of time, human beings have held an addictive (if somewhat morbid) fascination for predicting their own ultimate demise. So much so that certain skilled prophets and seers have focussed their skill to foresee terminal doom, and some unscrupulous individuals have even charged for the privilege (doom-merchants).

Given the difficulty of the task, it is perhaps unsurprising that the vast majority of predictions are projected far into the future, possibly to abate the demand for compensation should the world fail to lurch to an untimely full stop. Aside from issues of accountability and forward planning, there also appears to be great variability regarding the whys, wherefores and timing of predictions. This is perhaps understandable in the hinterland of Dark Ages, but in the modern era, the omission of such pertinent details is scientifically unacceptable.

Focussing specifically on the end of the world, the definitive of human melt-downs, this paper attempts to quantify and calibrate the exact risks that mankind faces and when we’re going to face them.¹

Methods of madness
A comprehensive review of the literature was used to compile a series of dates, causes and general descriptions of the end of the world. Data were divided into two categories, those predictions made before August 2005 and those after. Predictions were considered to be true or false depending on whether the utter doom predicted could be deemed not to have occurred by the specified date, assuming a literal view of proceedings rather than the more ephemeral ‘it’s the end of the world as we know it’.

Future prophecies were unilaterally considered ‘potentially true’, and thus were grouped according to the processes (e.g., flood, famine, pestilence, general ickiness) in order that the most probable cause of humanity’s utter obliteration could be isolated. A range of dates was also generated for the event.

Literature Review
Applying rigorous scientific scrutiny to the canon of ancient literature is not without complication. Some of the early seers were clearly clutching at straws and their work should be dismissed; for example, Sextus Julius Africanus predicted the end of the world in 500AD, and, failing to meet that deadline, projected his warnings to 800AD, by which time the end of his world had certainly come.

It is also easy to take predictions out of context. St. Ambrose of Milan’s observation in 378 AD that ‘the end of the world is upon us’, may well have been metaphorical given that a large tribe of irate Goths were sacking his homeland and playing nasty music.

Prophets - a bookie's nightmare.

Some prophets were subject to alarming statistical bad luck. In 1524, a seer predicted a cataclysmic flood in London on February 1st, but did also hedge his bets by saying he wasn’t entirely sure it mightn’t happen on February 30th instead. Over 20,000 souls left their homes, only for both days to turn out surprisingly sunny for an English winter. Such a meteorological about-turn would easily startle any self-respecting weatherman today.

There is a high variability in quality of seer as well; Nostradamus, for example, is thought to have accurately predicted the death of Henry II, the Great Fire of London and the French Revolution. On the other hand, Warren Jeffs, head prophet of the fundamentalist wing of the Church of the Latter Day Saints has predicted ‘wrath most horrendous’ in the ‘very near future’ several times without effect to date.In both past and present predictions, there was a strong bias towards Biblical doom, with notable predictors such as Sir Isaac Newton: (final year: 2060), Bede the Venerable (final year: 2076) and Nostradamus (final year: 3786) to name but a few. In the literature as a whole there is no strong consensus for an end date, but a clustering can be seen between next week and approximately 4000AD; probably long enough for you to finish this article.

Many of the earlier false prophets suggested round figures for doom-day, such as 500AD, 1000AD and 2000AD. It therefore seems probable that we are, in fact safer from apocalypse on such round figure days than at other times.

Results
There have been approximately 146 predictions of the end of the world or similar portents of finalisation of all humanity prior to August 2005.² Upon careful consideration of all the evidence, these can be grouped as shown in Figure 1.

Previous studies therefore suggest that prophecies can be considered inaccurate 100% of the time, a statistically significant figure (p = < 0.001).

Further research identified 39 prophecies yet t

o be fulfilled, which were considered potential meltdown triggers. Of these, the vast majority held some spiritual element, vengeful or otherwise (n = 23), some had an environmental lean (n = 10), five had a combination of these two factors and one prediction lay purely on the basis of UFOs.³ The proportions of these are summarised in Figure 2.

Discussions abound
Despite many disagreements in the literature, certain themes seem to stand out: the end of the world will be accompanied by terror, (abject, paralysing or general) and large-scale judgement of the habits and hubris of mankind, during which we will realise we ought to have pulled our socks up sooner.

A consensus-based approach suggests the most credible cause of the end of the world will be a combination of a super-volcano, a magnetic field reversal and an ice age coinciding together on 21st December 2012 in accordance with Mayan prophecies and the winter solstice.

We will be utterly helpless and almost certainly wiped out. To give the reader a visual summary of the literature, figures 3 and 4 represent a typical world scene before apocalypse and a projected scene after.

Conclusions
Although the prognosis for humanity doesn’t, immediately, look good, there are some comforting thoughts to be had. With an error rate of 100%, even the most popular of predictions is likely to be inaccurate. Therefore, the final conclusion of this research is this: if someone ever tells you the end of the world is nigh, they are not only very likely to be wrong, but, in fact, experience suggests you will actually be safer on such a day than any other.

KEY

¹ Readers should approach this new research with the caveat that most preparations will be fruitless when The End does finally come.

² I am indebted to the researchers of http://www.armageddonline.net whose stalwart work provided the basis for this study and the information on past predictions. Similarly, the research published at www.religioustolerance.org/end-wrl1 provided evidence for the more popular predictions of doom in the future.

³ This prediction, made by 33% of Americans, is based on the belief that the end of the USA is synonymous with the end of the rest of the world.

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